And, Enbridge argues, regulating pipelines is the job of the Federal Pipeline Safety and Hazardous Materials Administration, not the state of Michigan.

“We will not stop operating the pipeline unless we are ordered by a court or our regulator, which we believe is highly unlikely,” said Ryan Duffy, a spokesperson for the company.

As the deadline draws near, parties on all sides of the debate brace for drama in the Strait as activists protest Enbridge’s challenge, while acknowledging that at least for now, it seems likely that the fate of line 5 will be decided over months, if not years, in courtrooms or distant administrative proceedings.

‘There must be a consequence’

Predicting that Enbridge will keep its promises to challenge Whitmer, environmentalists are planning their response.

On Thursday, the 181st day since Whitmer’s Nov. 13 shutdown order, the groups say they will deliver “eviction notices” to the company’s offices in Mackinaw City and Lansing. It’s a purely symbolic gesture, said David Holtz, spokesperson for the anti-Line 5 Oil & Water Don’t Mix coalition. =

Holtz’s group were among those who pressured Whitmer for months to revoke the bondage. Reaching that milestone just to see Enbridge maintain the flow of oil, Holtz said, would be a disappointment.

But “we will continue to hold Enbridge accountable,” he said.

In interviews with Bridge Michigan and Michigan Radio, Holtz and other Line 5 opponents called on state and federal regulators to intervene.

“There has to be a consequence for ignoring the law,” Holtz said.

What could it be? Whitney Gravelle, lawyer and president of the Bay Mills Indian community, has a few ideas: She wants Michigan to seek an emergency order to shut down the pipeline until a judge makes a final decision, like the one Nessel obtained last year after the discovery of Enbridge. significant damage ”to one of Line 5’s submarine spans. Or, Gravelle said, the state could start issuing fines.

Gravelle said the twelve federally recognized Native American tribes of Michigan oppose the pipeline, which crosses waters that feature prominently in Anishinaabe creation stories.

“To compare it to other spiritualities, the Straits of Mackinac is our Garden of Eden,” Gravelle said.

In addition to this spiritual significance, the Straits are treaty-protected fishing waters for several tribes in Michigan.

Enbridge officials said they were not preparing for any response from the state. From a business perspective, spokesman Ryan Duffy said, Michigan is breaking the easement.

“Part of the easement agreement is that if there is something that the state feels is a problem or a safety issue, they would let us know and then we will have some time to resolve it,” he said. said Duffy.

Whitmer’s order described a long list of offenses that she and Department of Natural Resources Director Dan Eichinger concluded as “persistent and incurable” easement violations.

Attorney General Dana Nessel backed Whitmer’s November dismissal order with a lawsuit aimed at strengthening the Ingham County Circuit Court order. Enbridge then filed a federal lawsuit, claiming Michgian did not have the power to order a shutdown.

But it’s unclear how long the two sides have to wait before making their points before a judge. Lawyers are engaged in court-ordered mediation as they debate whether the dispute should be resolved in state or federal court.

If the case continues in state court, onlookers expect it to reach a state supreme court that became overwhelmingly liberal this year when Democratic candidate Elizabeth Welch, former Michigan president League of Conservation Voters, took the bench. In contrast, Republican presidents appointed the five judges to the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Michigan, where Enbridge filed its federal complaint.

Whitmer’s office backed its shutdown order with a plan on how to heat Michigan homes without relying on Line 5 to deliver propane. But Line 5 boosters criticized the plan as inadequate and questioned whether it could be deployed in time for the October heating season.

Closing the pipeline now, according to the company and its supporters, would create a regional energy crisis and hurt U.S. and Canadian companies that refine pipeline oil into jet fuels, plastics, fertilizers and other products.

Officials from neighboring states and Canada have launched a campaign of political pressure to change Whitmer’s mind. They’ve made media appearances, lobbied President Joe Biden and his staff, and appeared before Michigan legislative committees chaired by lawmakers who are friends of Line 5.

In briefs submitted to the court, attorneys for the state of Ohio, whose governor’s office and legislature are under Republican control, argued that a ruling would have “far-reaching consequences,” leaving Michigan , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Ontario and Quebec combined short 14.7 million gallons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel per day.

And Canada has threatened to invoke a 1977 treaty that says “no public authority” in the United States or Canada can impede the flow of petroleum products in cross-border pipelines.

Oil industry groups and some unions have pointed to the potential for job losses if the pipeline closes.

“It would put this place at risk,” said Scott Hayes, head of health, safety, environment and government affairs for the Toledo Refining Company, and threaten about 550 direct employees and 600 contractors who work. on the site.

Hayes would not say how much of the facility’s oil comes from Line 5. Likewise, Enbridge will not say exactly where the Line 5 product goes and in what quantities, although the company acknowledges that most of the product of Line 5 is unloaded in Canada. Opponents of the pipeline cite this opacity as a reason to doubt predictions of doom by Line 5 supporters.

As for this Canadian treaty? A legal expert told Bridge and Michigan Radio it likely supersedes state law.

However, the treaty language could favor Michigan, said Steven Ratner, Bruno Simma law professor at the University of Michigan. Indeed, the treaty states that pipelines are subject to “regulation by the relevant government authorities”.

“If the governor can show that they are applying scientific standards, that they would shut it down if there was an identical pipeline that belonged to a Michigan company… (the treaty) gives it a lot of flexibility,” Ratner said.

In an interview with Bridge this week, Nessel said that while Canadian officials are concerned about the closure of the Strait section of Line 5, “there is a very simple solution to that.”

“You can lay a new pipeline on Canadian soil,” she said. “We shouldn’t be in a position where Canada could reap almost all the benefits and the state of Michigan would bear all the risks” of a potential spill.